模糊需求下可单向替代的有机农产品订购策略

The Ordering Strategies of Organic Agricultural Products with Fuzzy Demand and One-Way Substitution

针对有机农产品易耗损、供应风险高以及补货困难的问题,建立和比较有机农产品单源采购与存在单向替代的有机和普通农产品双源采购模型,得出不同条件下零售商的最优订购策略和最大期望利润。结果表明,在模糊需求下零售商的最优订购策略不唯一,农产品耗损程度、销售价格、市场需求等都会影响最优策略的选择;当单位农产品所获得的利润小于(大于)未售出所造成的损失时,应该持保守(积极)的采购策略,订购较少(较多)的农产品以避免库存剩余(供应不足);普通农产品的替代效用越大,零售商越倾向选择双源采购策略。

Considering the organic agricultural products with supply chain risks,replenishment difficulties,and the huge circulation wastage,the single-source purchasing model and the dual-source purchasing model with one-way substitution for organic and ordinary agricultural products were studied respectively.The retailer′s optimal ordering strategy and the maximum expected profit under different conditions were discussed and analyzed.The results show that the retailer′s optimal ordering strategy is not unique,and the degree of agricultural product consumption,sales price and market demand will affect the choice of the optimal strategy.When the profit per unit of agricultural product is less than(greater than) the loss caused by unsold,a conservative(positive) procurement strategy should be adopted to order less(more) agricultural products to avoid inventory surplus(supply shortage).In addition,the greater the substitution effect of ordinary agricultural products,the more retailers tend to choose a dual source procurement strategy.