基于熵值法和层次分析法的广东省水资源安全评价及影响因素分析

Evaluation and factors of water resource security of Guangdong Province using entropy value and analytic hierarchy process methods

水资源安全综合评价对水资源管理与规划具有重要意义通过熵值法和层次分析法构建了广东省水资源安全评价体系,综合分析了2007-20丨6年广东省水资源安全状况结果表明:2007-2016年,广东省水资源安全指数始终介于0.4〜0.6之间,属于一般安全等级,水资源和社会经济安全指数稳步提升,但水生态安全指数呈现下降趋势;广东省水资源安全空间分异明显,珠三角核心区、粤东的潮汕地区及粤西的湛江市水资源安全等级较低,珠H角按心区水生态指数较低,社会经济安全指数南珠三角核心区向外围逐步递减;广东省水资源安全影响因素存在K域差异,珠=角地区水资源安全的优势因素为社会经济,劣势因素为水生态环境,而粤东、粤西及粤北地区的优势W素为水资源量与水生态环境,劣势因素为社会经济整体来看,广东省水资源安全状况与区域经济发展程度不卩I;配,经济相对发达的珠三角核心区、粤东和%西沿海地区的水资源安全形势较为严峻研究结果以期为广东省及其各地市水资源规划和管理提供参考.

Evaluation of water resource security is important for the m anagem ent and planning of water resource.This study established integrative assessm ent system using the entropy value method and analytic hierarchy process m ethod,and analyzed status of water resource security for G uangdong Province during 2007 and 2016.Results showed that security index of water resource ranged between 0.4 and 0.6 for G uangdong Province in the studied 10 y ea rs,which belonged to general security level.The security index for water resource and community economy in c re ase d,whereas the security index of water ecology d ecreased.M oreover,the spatial pattern of security index of water resource displayed significant heterogen eity,with the lower security class of water resource distributing in the Pearl River Delta region,eastern(C haoshan)and western(Z hanjiang)part of Guangdong Province.The security index of com munity e-conomy decreased from the Pearl River Delta region to outside.F urtherm ore,the effects on security of water resource showed obviously spatial differences.The advantage of water resource security in the Pearl River Delta region was community econom y,while the disadvantage was water ecology.For the e a ste rn,western and northern parts of G uangdong P rovince,the advantages were water resource volume and water ecology,while the disadvantage was community econom y.In conclusion,the spatial pattern of water resource security and economic developm ent did not well correspond,and the status of w ater resource security was relatively worse in the Pearl River Delta,eastern and western parts of Guangdong Province.The results will be beneficial for the management and planning of water resource in Guangdong Province.