全球大型跨流域调水工程及水资源农业开发潜力

Global large-scale inter-basin water transfer projects and potential of water resources’ agricultural development

根据自流调水、就近调水、技术可行等原则,利用地理信息系统空间分析功能设计了全球9大区72项跨流域调水工程和相关粮食运输的内河航运网络,利用迈阿密光温和气候生产力模型计算了非受水区的节水灌溉粮食增产潜力和9大区调水灌溉受水区的粮食增产潜力,对受水区进行了缺水程度评价,对调水工程的经济效益和可行性进行了粗略技术经济分析与评价。主要结论为:受水区和非受水区的粮食增产潜力分别为36.18×10~8t和11.72×10~8t,合计为47.90×10~8t,稍高于预测的2100年世界食物增产量40.56×10~8t;大多数调水项目经济效益好,可行性强,个别调水项目经济效益较差,可以通过优化设计增强项目可行性。笔者对未来全球食物供给形势持谨慎乐观态度,主张采取积极进取的全球食物生产战略,以保障世界食物供给。

Based on the principles of gravity-flowing water transfer,near-by water transfer and technological feasibility,72 inter-basin water transfer projects and related inland waterway networks for grain shipping in nine regions in the world were designed using the spatial analysis function of geographic information system.The grain output increase potential in non-water-receiving areas and water-receiving areas of nine water-transferring irrigation districts were calculated using the Miami Model on light-temperature and climate productivity.The water shortage grade of the water receiving area was evaluated,and the economic benefit and feasibility of the water diversion project were roughly analyzed by tech-economic evaluation.The main conclusions are that the potentials of grain output increase in water-receiving areas and non-water-receiving areas are 3.618 billion tons and 1.172 billion tons respectively,totaling 4.790 billion tons,which is slightly higher than the predicted world’s food output increase of 4.056 billion tons by2100.Most water diversion projects are efficient economically with strong feasibility,and only a few water diversion projects’economic efficiency are poor,but the feasibility can be improved by optimizing the designation.The authors are cautiously optimistic on the global food supply situation in the future,and advocates the adoption of an aggressive global food production strategy to secure the world’s food supply.