基于GM模型的河西走廊区域地下水矿化度预测

Groundwater mineralization prediction in Hexi Corridor based on GM model

研究地下水矿化度对于建设优美的生态环境、实现水资源的可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。通过GM(1,1)预测模型和GM(1,N)预测模型对双河村和新兴村地下水矿化度进行预测,并与实际检测值进行对比分析,发现GM(1,1)模型预测双河村与新兴村地下水矿化度预测值,预测结果与实际值大体变化趋势相同;而GM(1,N)模型下双河村与新兴村地下水矿化度预测值与实际值的变化一致,双河村的预测平均相对误差5.09%,预测精度94.91%,对新兴村的预测平均相对误差3.20%,预测精度96.80%,模型拟合效果较为科学,其预测结果能够作为最终数据进行分析,为该地区地下水矿化度的研究提供了理论依据。

Studying the salinity of groundwater is of great significance for building a beautiful ecological environment and realizing the sustainable development of water resources.The GM(1,1)prediction model and the GM(1,N)prediction model are used to predict the salinity of groundwater in Shuanghe Village and Xinxing Village,and compared with the actual detection values.It is found that the GM(1,1)model predicts double The prediction value of groundwater mineralization degree in Hecun and Xinxing Village is the same as the general change trend of the actual value;while the predicted value of groundwater salinity in Shuanghe Village and Xinxing Village under the GM(1,N)model is consistent with the actual value,Shuanghe Village The predicted relative error is 5.09%,the prediction accuracy is 94.91%,the forecast relative error of emerging village is 3.20%,the prediction accuracy is 96.80%,and the model fitting effect is scientific.The prediction result can be analyzed as the final data for the groundwater in the region.The study of salinity provides a theoretical basis.