产业政策对产业升级、经济增长的影响——以清远市2001-2017年数据为例

Research on the Impact of Industrial Policy on Industrial Upgrading and Economic Growth——Taking the Data of Qingyuan City from 2001 to 2017 as an Example

通过基于向量误差修正模型(VECM)并运用清远市2001-2017年市外投资规模、第二第三产业比重以及人均GDP的数据分析产业政策对清远市产业结构优化和经济增长之间的关系,可以发现清远承接产业转移能够促进清远市产业结构优化升级和人均GDP的上升,主要体现在第二产业比重的上升,但对第三产业比重的影响尚未显现;广东2013年出台的“粤东西北振兴”的产业政策尚未对清远市产业结构的转型升级和人均GDP的增长产生长期稳定的影响,外来的产业尚未对清远市产业结构升级和经济增长的路径产生显著影响。清远可依托区位优势、深化产业共建、培育特色产业三个方面推动产业结构优化,实现人均GDP的稳定增长。

Being based on the vector error correction model(VECM)and the data of Qingyuan’s 2001-2017 overseas investment scale,the proportion of the second and third industry and the per capita GDP,this paper firstly analyzes the industrial transfer,industrial structure optimization and per capita GDP growth of Qingyuan,The relationship between long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuations.The empirical results show that:Qingyuan’s undertaking of industrial transfer can promote the optimization and upgrading of Qingyuan’s industrial structure,mainly reflected in the rise of the proportion of the secondary industry,the impact on the proportion of the tertiary industry has not yet appeared,in addition,it will bring about an increase in per capita GDP.Secondly,the rejuvenation of the East,West and North Guangdong in 2013 has only a short-term impact on the upgrading of Qingyuan’s industrial structure and per capita GDP.The long-term impact has not yet emerged,that is,the industrial transfer has not yet resulted in the upgrading of Qingyuan’s industrial structure and economic growth.Impact.Finally,we propose policy recommendations for other regions.