中国在“一带一路”区域的投资结构变化及发展趋势

The Structure Change and Development Trend of China’s Investment in the District of the Belt and Road Initiative

"一带一路"区域在中国对外投资中的地位日益重要,投资收益能否得到保障至关重要。以中国在"一带一路"区域投资结构为研究对象,从数量、地区、行业等方面分析投资结构现状,根据投资导向差异,可以分为技术寻求型、能源导向型、效率导向型和市场需求型等四类投资。针对2011—2017年四类投资在中国对"一带一路"区域投资结构中的权重变化,选用熵值法、描述性统计和散点图相结合的分析方法辅助研究,结果显示:第一,受中国能源安全战略和供给侧结构性改革的影响,能源导向型投资和市场需求型投资的权重不断加大,但中国在"一带一路"区域的投资结构未发生根本性变化;第二,技术寻求型投资因沿线国家普遍缺乏先进技术、知识产权保护意识和研究成果转化能力而面临低品质发展的危险;第三,随着互联互通进程的加速,中国的能源导向型投资呈现分散化态势,这有助于中国更好地落实能源安全战略;第四,技术导向型和市场需求型投资有高质量发展的条件和趋势,其中,技术寻求型投资以技术和成本优势为标准正在形成"两升一降"的投资格局,但是有助于中国提升国际竞争力的高效率投资比重小,市场需求型投资以一般贸易和产业链形式可以促使中国与沿线国家经济结构的互补性得到充分发挥,切实在"一带一路"区域形成共享经济体。

With increasingly significant status of the district of the Belt and Road Initiative in China's outbound investment,it is crucial whether investment returns can be guaranteed.The authors take the investment structure of China in the district of the B&R as the research object and analyze the current situation of investment structure from the aspects of quantity,region and industry.According to the investment-oriented differences,it can be divided into four types of investment:technology-seeking,energy-oriented,efficiency-oriented and market-demand-oriented.Against the weight changes of the four types of investment during 2011 to 2017 in the investment structure of B&R district in China,entropy method,descriptive statistics and scatter diagram are selected to assist the research.It is found that:first,under the influence of China's energy security strategy and supply-side structural reform,the weight of energy-oriented investment and demand-oriented of market investment keeps increasing,but China's investment structure in the B&R district has not changed fundamentally;second,technology-seeking investment is faced with the risk of low-quality development due to the general lack of advanced technology,intellectual property protection awareness and research results transformation capability in countries along the B&R;third,with the acceleration of the interconnection process,China's energy-oriented investment presents a trend of diversification,which is conducive to the better implementation of China's energy security strategy;and fourth,technology-oriented and demand-oriented of market investment has the conditions and trend of high-quality development.And technology-seeking investment is forming a pattern of"two rises and one fall"taking technology and cost advantages as the standard;but the proportion of high-efficiency investment which helps China improve its international competitiveness is small;demand-oriented investment in the form of general trade and industrial chain can give full play to role of economic structural complementary of China and countries along the B&R,and form a shared economy in the B&R district.