零利率下限约束、宏观经济波动与混合型货币政策框架

Zero Lower Bound,Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Mixed Monetary Policy Framework

宏观经济持续低迷引发学界关于货币政策有效性的广泛讨论。本文构建包含名义利率零下限约束的混合型货币政策框架,据以系统比较存在和不存在零利率下限约束两种情形下宏观经济波动异质性以及货币政策有效性的差异。研究发现,总需求下降时零利率下限约束情形下产出下降和通缩程度更为严重;总供给下降不会引致名义利率触及零利率下限以致宏观经济波动演变无明显差异;零利率下限约束情形下央行数量型调控的有效性显著降低,价格型调控则完全失效。本文认为考虑零利率下限约束的建模更宜刻画现实经济周期和宏观调控效力,忽视零利率下限约束会对宏观经济预判和政策调控有效性的认识产生偏误;需求低迷环境下“数量型调控为主、价格型调控为辅”的政策组合仍为央行合意的货币调控范式,央行须更加关注降低实际资金利率;政府应注重宏观政策协调配合,实施更加积极的财政政策以与货币政策发挥有效政策合力,促使实体经济趋稳高质发展以摆脱利率下限约束困境。

The sustained macroeconomic downturn has led to a wide academic debate on the effectiveness of monetary policy.The paper develops a mixed monetary policy theory framework to analyze the differences of macroeconomic dynamics and the effectiveness of stnrctural monetary policies in tire cases of considering and without considering the zero lower bound nominal interest rate.The results show that lire degrees of cxitput recession and deflation caused by demand decline are more severe in the case of considering zero lower bound;tire shock of supply decline will not lead the nominal interest rate to hitting tire zero lower limit so that tire macroeconomic fluctuations have no significant difference under two kinds of bounds;lire effectiveness of quantitative regulation will be sipiificantly reduced while price regulation will Ire completely ineffective under tire zero lower bound.The paper argues that lire model cronside ring the zero lower bound cif interest rate can belter describe the real economic cycle and policy effects and ignoring the zero lower bound will lead to a cognitive biw on macroeconomic forecasting and the effectiveness of policy regulation.In addition,the paper suggests lira!the policy portfolio with"more emphasis<m quantitative control and less on price control"is also tire optimal monetary policy paradigm choice under lire circumstance demand downturn,and the central bank should pay more attention to lowering tire real interest rate.In tire meanwhile,the government should pay attention to tire coordination of macro policies in the case of low interest rate,implement more active fiscal policies to exert effective policy synergy with monetary policies,and promote the stable and hijd>*q olity development of real economy to get rid of the lower bound constraint of interest rate.