金融创新如何影响了中国货币需求的流动性陷阱效应——来自金融理财产品的证据

How Does Financial Innovation Affect the Liquidity Trap Effect of China’s Money Demand——Evidence from Financing Products

本文利用变系数状态空间模型,考察了近年来中国以互联网金融理财产品和银行理财产品为代表的金融创新对货币流动性陷阱效应的影响,主要结论为:(1)货币需求流动性陷阱在中国的确比较显著地存在,其作用机制基本符合投资组合假说,但显著性与货币层次划分密切相关,M2和M1相对显著,而M0则不显著;(2)与成熟市场经济国家不同,金融创新强化而非弱化了货币需求的流动性陷阱效应,这可能与中国金融产品仍不够丰富有关,但互联网金融对货币投机性需求因“功能主序效应”而对流动性陷阱影响不显著,银行理财产品虽然影响显著,但对不同层次货币表现出“结构差异效应”;(3)利率市场化改革增强了金融创新对流动性陷阱效应的边际影响,其作用机制是利率市场化改革弱化了金融市场的分割,强化了利率在微观经济主体金融资产组合中的信号作用。本文的政策含义是,面对当前金融风险仍较高和金融稳定任务仍较重的现实,低利率货币政策的效果有限,金融危机期间欧美所采用的数量型非常规货币政策的借鉴意义须充分重视,且货币政策操作应当注意与中国金融结构变迁阶段特征相耦合。

This paper examines lire impact<if China's financial innovation represented by Internet financing products and bank financing products on the liquidity trap effect in recent years.Using tire state space model of variable coefficient,we find that the liquidity trap is significant in China as a whole,but lire significance is closely related to lire monetary hierarchy as in that Ml and M2 are relatively significant,but MO is not.Compared with developed countries,in China,financial innovation strengthens rather than weakens lire liquidity trap effect of money demand,which may be related to insufficient variety of China’s financial assets.However,the development of Internet financial it.sets has no significant impact on liquidity traps due to tire"function order effect".Although bank financial assets have significant impact on liquidity traps,they show "structure effects" for different levels of cuirenciet.Additionally,tire market-based reform of interest rates entrances the impact of financial innovation on the liquidity trap effect.The policy implication of the paper is lira!the quantitative unconventional monetary policy adopted during the European and American financial crisis must be fully considered by PBC,and lire operation of monetary policy should Ire coupled with lire change of China's financial structure.