非互惠的零关税待遇是否促进了受惠国的出口多样化——基于中美对非洲贸易政策的比较研究

Did Non-reciprocal Zero Tariff Treatment Promote Export Diversification of Beneficiary Countries? ——A Comparative Study on China and US Trade Policy towards Africa

非互惠的优惠贸易待遇是世界贸易组织和国际社会支持发展中国家尤其是最不发达国家发展的重要工具。为了评估该政策的效果,本文以中美对非洲实施的零关税待遇为例,采用2001—2017年HS8位贸易数据从整体、行业和区域层面评估了两种政策对受惠国出口多样化产生的影响。结果显示,美国零关税待遇分为AGOA-GSP和AGOA-服装两个条款,中国零关税待遇(FOCAC)在遵循WTO规则、受惠商品范围、受惠国家标准、原产地标准及政策有效期方面均优于AGOA-GSP,但在原产地标准灵活度和政策优惠力度方面低于AGOA-服装。这些特征导致三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响产生显著的差异。整体上,FOCAC和AGOA-服装对受惠国出口多样化均产生了显著的积极影响,而AGOA-GSP的影响不显著;行业层面,FOCAC对受惠国制造业、矿业和农业的出口多样化均产生了显著的促进作用,而AGOA的两个条款对受惠国三个细分行业出口多样化的影响均不显著;区域层面,三类政策对受惠国出口多样化的影响仅在部分区域发挥效果。

Non-reciprocal trade preferential treatment is an important tool for the World Trade Organization and the international community to support the development of developing Countries.especially the least developed countries.In onler to evaluate the effect of the policy,this paper takes lire zero tariff treatment adopted by China and the United Stairs towards Africa as an example,firstly compares and analyzes tire characteristics of these two policies,and then,uses HS 8 code trade data during 2001—2017 to assess lire impact of lire two policies on lire export diversification of beneficiary countries at the overall,sectoral and regional levels.Tire rtslilts show lira!tire zero-tariff treatment implemented by the United Stairs is divided into two clauses;AGOA-GSP and AGOA-Apparel.The zero-tariff treatment implemented by China(FOCAC)is superior to AGOA-GSP in terms of compliance with WTO rules,scope of beneficiary cornrnodities,beneficiary national standards,origin of place standards and validity period,but inferior to AGOA-Apparel in terms of origin of place standards and preference margin.These characteristics lead to significant differences in lire impact of the three types of policies on export diversification of beneficiary countries.At lire overall level,FOCAC and AGOA-Apparel have a significant positive impact on expert diversification of beneficiary countries,while AGOA-GSP Iras no significant impact;at tire industry level,FOCAC has a significant impact on manufacturing,mining and agriculture of beneficiary countries,while AGOA’s two provisions have no significant impact on export diversification in three Sub-sectors of beneficiary countries;at the regional level,tire impact of the three types of policies on export diversification in Africa is only effective in some regions.