不同规模自然灾害对行业股票指数的冲击效应——基于西南地区与东北地区的对比分析

Impact Effect of Different Scales of Natural Disasters on Industrial Stock Index——Contrastive Analysis Based on Southwest and Northeast China

采用事件研究法以2007—2018年间8个不同类型、不同规模的自然灾害为样本,实证研究了此类事件对不同地区的行业股指的影响。研究结果表明:(1)任一规模的地质灾害对西南地区和东北地区的农林牧渔、采矿、运输仓储行业都有显著负向影响。大规模地质灾害对西南地区建筑行业产生显著负向影响,对东北地区建筑业产生显著正向影响。(2)任一规模的气象灾害都对西南地区和东北地区的建筑、农林牧渔、运输仓储产生显著影响,但影响方向相反。大规模气象灾害对西南地区采矿业产生显著负向影响,对东北地区采矿业则产生显著正向影响。(3)地质灾害只对西南地区水利/公共设施业、租赁业产生影响,对东北地区相同行业没有影响。本文量化了不同规模自然灾害对不同地区行业股票市场的影响,为完善股票市场的物理风险管理体系提供了必要的证据支持。

Using the event study method and taking eight different types and scales of natural disasters from 2007 to 2018 as the samples,this paper empirically studies the impact of such events on industry stock indexes in different regions.The results show that:(1)geological hazards of any scale have a significant negative impact on agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,mining,transportation and storage industries in southwest and northeast China.The large-scale geological disasters have a significant positive impact on the construction industry of southwest China while there is a remarkable negative impact on the construction industry of northeast China.(2)meteorological disasters of any scale have a significant impact on buildings,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,transportation and storage in the southwest and northeast regions,but the impact direction is opposite.Meteorological disasters of large-scale have a significant negative effect on mining industry in southwest China but a prominent positive effect on mining industry in northeast China.(3)geological hazards only affect the water resources/public facilities industry and leasing industry in southwest China,but not the same industry in northeast China.Geological hazards have different impacts on industry stock index in different regions.This paper quantifies the impact of natural disasters of different scales on the stock market of different industries in various regions,and provides necessary evidence for improving the physical risk management system of the stock market.