产业集聚模式选择与城市人口规模变化——来自285个地级及以上城市的经验证据

Agglomeration Mode and Urban Population Size: Empirical Evidence from 285 Cities at Prefecture-level and above

文章构建了引入人口规模约束的产业集聚函数,探讨不同的人口规模区间专业化集聚与多样化集聚促进城市经济增长的机理,利用2004~2017年285个地级及以上城市样本进行动态面板门槛模型估计。研究结果表明:(1)当城市人口规模在147.59万~211.71万时,专业化和多样化两种产业集聚模式均有利于经济增长,当人口规模在此区间以下时,城市产业宜选择专业化集聚模式,当人口规模在此区间以上时,城市产业宜选择多样化集聚模式;(2)专业化集聚因劳动力的吸纳能力和产品多样化的供给能力有限而限制了城市人口规模的扩张,多样化集聚则能更好地发挥Jacobs外部性促进家庭和企业关联效应的良性循环,有利于人口集聚和城市规模扩张。中国中小城市专业化水平的不断提升将加快本地剩余劳动力向多样化程度高的大城市迁移。因而,各地方政府应充分意识到“小而全”“大而全”、产业结构同质化的危害,顺应市场需求和城市人口两极分化的趋势,鼓励中小城市选择专业化为主的产业发展模式,鼓励大城市根据资源条件和功能定位选择适度多样化的产业发展模式。

By constructing an industrial agglomeration function with urban population size constraints,this paper discusses the mechanism and effect of specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration to promote urban economic growth.Based on the sample data of 285 cities at prefecture-level and above from 2004 to 2017,the dynamic panel threshold model shows the results as follows:(1)when the amount of urban population is between 1.4759 million and 2.1171 million,the two agglomeration modes are both conducive to promoting urban economic growth.When the urban population is below 1.4759 million,the specialization mode is more conducive.When the urban population is more than 2.1171 million,the diversification mode should be selected.(2)The limited capacity of the specialized mode to absorb labor force and to supply diversified products is not conducive to more population agglomeration.The diversified mode has Jacobs externalities to bring positive cycle of linkage effects between households and enterprises and is conducive to more population agglomeration.The improvement of the specialization in small and medium-sized cities in China will speed up the migration of local surplus labor to large cities.Therefore,local governments should avoid the risks of “small and complete”,“big and complete”and to homogenize industrial structure.In conform to the trend of two-level differentiation of market requirement and urban population,governments should encourage small and medium-sized cities follow the specialization mode,and big cities follow the diversification mode according to resource condition and functional orientation.