中国制造业空间转移趋势及其影响因素:2007~2017

Spatial Transfer Trend and It's Effect Factors of Manufacturing Industry in China:2007~2017

研究目标:测度和分析2007~2017年中国制造业空间转移的趋势及其影响因素。研究方法:首先根据产业份额的绝对变动,对制造业空间转移格局及演变特征进行初步探析;其次借助制造业区位熵的相对变动,测度分行业空间转移的特征;最后综合考虑生产要素、区位要素和全球化因素建立空间计量模型探究各因素对不同类型制造业空间转移的作用机制。研究发现:东部和东北地区的制造业向中西部地区转移,其中向中部地区的转移最为明显;劳动密集型产业主要从东部向东北、中部地区转移,同时还存在区域内转移;资本密集型产业的转移主要集中在区域内,区域间的转移并不明显;技术密集型产业从东部和东北地区向中西部地区转移。从影响因素角度分析,交通条件是产业空间转移的重要推动力,而其他因素对不同类型制造业空间转移的影响效应存在差异,劳动力要素和市场规模是促进劳动密集型产业空间转移的重要因素;资本要素、技术创新和全球化因素均能带动资本密集型产业和技术密集型产业的空间转移。研究创新:在考虑行业异质性、空间依赖性的条件下,对中国制造业的空间转移问题展开立体式研究。研究价值:从宏观角度重新认识和定位当前中国制造业空间转移的特征与规律,为政策制定提供参考。

Research Objectives:To measure and analyze the trend and effect factors of China's manufacturing industry spatial transfer from 2007 to 2017.Research Methods:Firstly,according to the absolute change of industry share,this paper makes a preliminary analysis of the spatial transfer pattern and evolution characteristics of manufacturing industry.Secondly,by means of the relative change of location entropy of manufacturing industry,it measures the characteristics of spatial transfer of sub-industries.Finally,it establishes a spatial econometric model based on comprehensive consideration of production factors,location factors and policy factors.The effect factors influencing the spatial transfer of different types of manufacturing industry is investigated.Research Findings:Manufacturing industry in eastern and northeastern areas transfers to the central and western regions,the most obvious of which is to the central region.Labor-intensive industries mainly transfer from the eastern to the northeast and central regions,while there are also intra-regional transfers.Capital-intensive industries mainly concentrate in intra-regional transfers,while inter-regional transfers are not obvious.Technology-intensive industries are shifting from the eastern and northeastern regions to the central and western regions.From the perspective of effect factors,traffic conditions are the important driving force of industrial spatial transfer,while other factors have different effects on different types of manufacturing spatial transfer.Labor factors and market size are the important factors to promote the spatial transfer of labor-intensive industries.Capital factors,technological innovation and economic globalization all can drive the spatial transfer of capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industries.Research Innovations:Considering the heterogeneity and spatial dependence of industries,this paper conducts a three-dimensional study on the spatial transfer of Chinese manufacturing industry.Research Value:This paper can help to re-recognize and position the characteristics and laws of the current spatial transfer of manufacturing industry in China from a macro perspective,and provide a reference for policy making.