高铁开通与分析师预测精度

High-speed Railways’ Opening and Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy

以沪深两市A股上市公司2003—2017年分析师预测数据为样本,采用双重差分模型检验高铁开通对分析师预测精度的影响。研究发现,高铁开通显著提高分析师预测精度,这一结论对工具变量回归、安慰剂检验、变量与样本调整等各种稳健性检验保持稳健。中介效应表明,高铁开通主要通过促进分析师实地调研而影响其预测。进一步研究发现,当高铁站距离市中心较近、公司位于市区、分析师来自高声誉券商且无利益冲突时,高铁开通对分析师预测精度的促进作用更为显著。

This paper uses the DID model to test the impact of high-speed railways'opening on analysts'forecast accuracy by taking the 2003—2017 analysts'forecast data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies as samples.The study shows that high-speed railways'opening significantly improved analysts'forecast accuracy,and this conclusion remained robust to various robustness tests such as instrumental variable regression,placebo test,the adjustment of variable and sample and so on.The mediation effect indicates that the opening of the high-speed railways mainly affects analysts’forecast by promoting the frequency of their field research.Further research shows that when the high-speed rail station is closer to the city center,the company is located in the urban area,the analysts come from high-reputation brokers and there is no conflict of interest,the high-speed railways'opening has a more significant effect on the accuracy of analysts'forecast.