碳排放影响因素中产业结构及能源强度的碳减排潜力研究

A Research on Industrial Structure Adjustment and Energy Intensity in the Influential Factors of Carbon Emission Reduction

阐述了碳排放的影响因素以及产业结构与能源强度、经济增长的关系。基于LMDI(Log-Mean Divisia Index,对数均值迪氏指数分解法)分解技术,对中国2000-2016年碳排放进行了因素分解,发现经济增长、人口规模是碳排放增长的重要因素,而产业结构及能源强度则是碳减排的着力点。构建了结构方程模型,采用路径分析方法检验了产业结构调整对碳减排的直接和间接效应,对比了各要素影响碳减排的程度。得出如下结论:(1)产业结构调整对碳减排既存在显著的直接影响,也存在显著的间接影响;(2)人口规模对碳排放的影响系数为1.05,经济规模对碳排放的影响系数为0.5;(3)能源强度对碳减排的直接影响为0.13,而产业结构对碳减排的直接影响为0.46,间接影响为0.12,总效应为0.58,产业结构较能源强度更具碳减排潜力。

The influential factors of carbon emission reduction and the relationship of industrial structure with energy intensity and economic growth were expounded.Based on the LMDI(logarithm-mean Divisia index)technology,the factorisation of carbon emissions in China in the period of 2000 through 2016 has been conducted.It was found that the economic growth and population size were of important factors in the rise of carbon emissions,whilst industrial structure and energy intensity were the emphases of carbon emission reduction.A structural equation model was constructed,and the direct and indirect effects of industrial structuring on carbon emission reduction were examined by using a path analysis.It has concluded that:(1)industrial structuring has both remarkable direct and indirect effects on carbon emission reduction;(2)the impact coefficients of population size and economic scale on carbon emissions were 1.05 and 0.5,respectively;(3)in respect to carbon emission reduction,the direct coefficient of energy intensity was 0.13,whilst the direct and indirect coefficients of industrial structure were 0.46 and 0.12,respectively,with an integral coefficient of 0.58,and industrial structure could have more potential for carbon emission reduction than energy intensity could do.