基于航班时刻不确定性的航路时隙分配模型

A Model of En-Route and Slot Allocation Based on Uncertainty of Flight Time

针对航班运行时刻波动导致延误风险和空中交通扰动的问题,在航路时隙资源优化分配时考虑航班运行时刻的不确定性,对航班运行时刻的概率分布做出合理假设,制定允许分配策略以一定置信水平成立的航路时隙资源分配风险决策原则,采用随机优化方法,针对不同航路类型建立航班实际运行时刻不早于计划运行时刻的随机机会约束,以一定置信水平下的全部航班总延误损失最小、平均旅客延误时间最小为目标,建立了航路时隙分配的随机机会约束规划模型,在满足航班唯一性约束、时隙独占性约束、航路容量约束和随机机会约束的基础上优化分配航路时隙;采用Lingo11和MatlabR2007b求解模型,以民航某航路仿真运行数据为例,在0.8的置信水平下,本模型各策略的总航班延误损失均值和平均旅客延误时间均值比先到先服务策略分别减少38.54%和41.3%,模型在控制二次延误风险的同时显著减少了航班延误,分别在置信水平为0.6,0.7,0.9时运行本模型,总航班延误损失和平均旅客延误时间的最优值分别增长1.07%,1.73%,保障航路交通稳定性需要以损失一定的运行效率为代价。

To deal with delay risk and air traffic disturbance resulted from fluctuation of flight time,the uncertainty of flight time is involved in en-route and slot resource allocation.Probability distribution of flight time is reasonably supposed.A discipline of risk decision for en-route and slot resource allocation is that allocation strategy should be satisfied with certain confidence level.Stochastic optimization is used.Chance constraints with real time not being earlier than expected time of the flights are proposed according to different en-routes.Aiming to minimize total flight delay costs and average delay time of the passengers with certain confidence level,a chance constrained programming model is proposed.The en-routes and slots would be optimally allocated flights based on constraints including uniqueness of a flight,occupying a slot with exclusivity,en-routes′capacity and the chances.Lingo11 and MatlabR2007b are used,and a numerical test is performed based on simulated data of a civil en-route.With the confidence level 0.8,the average values of total costs of flight delay and average delay time of passengers from each strategy are reduce by 38.54%and 41.3%,respectively,less than those strategies of first come first service.The results show that the model can significantly reduce flight delay with the second delay risks being controlled.When it performs under the confidence level 0.6,0.7,and 0.9,the optimal values of total costs of flight delay and average delay time of the passengers increase by 1.07%and 1.73%,respectively.It also shows that ensuring stability of en-route air traffic costs efficiency.