产业集聚与城镇空间格局的耦合关系及时空演化——以长三角区域为例

Research on the coupling relationship and spatial-temporal evolution between industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern: A case study of the Yangtze River Delta

产业集聚与城镇空间格局的变动之间存在着密切的联系。针对两者之间的耦合关系及时空演化问题,构建区域产业集聚与城镇空间格局演化综合评价指标,并利用1990-2016年长三角区域16个城市的统计数据,基于面板回归模型和空间重心模型探究两系统之间演化的互动作用关系和时空演化。结果表明:长三角区域的产业集聚与城镇空间格局间存在较显著的耦合关系;长三角区域各市区的耦合协调度及空间匹配度均稳步提升,但长三角区域耦合协调发展程度不够均衡,长三角南部的耦合协调的发展程度稍弱于长三角区域北部的发展;在近几十年的发展中,长三角北部地区逐渐形成以上海-南京为轴线的耦合协调发展区域,整个长三角区域的耦合协调则呈现"Z"字形特征。

There is a close relationship between industrial agglomeration and changes in urban spatial patterns. This article is aimed at the coupling relationship between regional industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern, so as to construct comprehensive evaluation indicators of regional industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern evolution, and explore the interaction and spatial-temporal evolution between the two systems through the panel regression model and spatial center of gravity model by using statistics from 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 1990 to 2016. The results show that there is a significant coupling relationship between industrial agglomeration and urban spatial pattern in the study area. Coordination degree and spatial matching degree of various urban areas in the Yangtze River Delta region are steadily increasing. However, the degree of coupling and coordinated development in this region is not balanced enough. The degree of coupling and coordination in the southern part of the Yangtze River Delta is slightly weaker than that in the northern part. In the development of recent decades, the northern part of the delta gradually formed a coupling and coordinated development area with Shanghai-Nanjing as the axis, and the coupling coordination of the entire Yangtze River Delta region is characterized by a "Z" shape.