基于信息熵的流域水电开发环境系统演化分析

Analysis of Hydropower Exploration and Watershed Environment System’s Evolution Based on Information Entropy Theory

通过构建流域水电开发环境系统熵流指标体系,运用Shannon信息熵原理,定量计算了系统“压力型正熵流”和“支持型负熵流”。定义了系统总熵流和扰动系数,揭示了流域水电开发环境系统稳定性和水电开发活动对环境系统的扰动能力。最后以资水流域为例对该模型进行了验证。研究结果表明:2006年资水流域总熵流值为正,此时流域环境系统结构处于一种不稳定状态;2007—2016年总熵流值转为负值,系统有序度增强,处于良性循环状态;研究期内系统扰动系数呈波动发展,除2011年和2014年外,扰动系数均为负,系统支持型负熵流增长较快,说明资水流域整体具备一定的活力。

After building the entropy indexes system of the watershed hydropower exploration and environment system,by using Shannon in⁃formation entropy theory,the“pressure-type positive entropy”and“support-type negative entropy”were calculated.By defining system total entropy flow and disturbance coefficient,stability of the system and disturbance ability of hydropower exploration activity was analyzed.Finally the case study of Zishui River basin was made to verify this model.The conclusions show that first,the value of total entropy flow was positive in 2006 and the watershed environment system was developing into disordered state and was unsteady.From 2007 to 2016,the value of total entropy flow was negative.The order degree was strengthened and the system was in virtuous cycle state.Second,during the study pe⁃riod,the disturbance coefficient was in oscillation development.Except 2011 and 2014,in most of time,disturbance coefficient was negative and the negative entropy increased quickly which represented that Zishui River basin was vigorous.