政策试点成效的影响因素研究——基于浙江省417项试点的实证分析

Study on the Influencing Factors of the Result of Policy Pilot—— An Empirical Analysis Based on 417 Pilot Programs in Zhejiang Province

为了探求影响改革试点成效的差异影响因素,本文以浙江省十八届三中全会全面深化改革以来纳入台账管理的417项改革试点为研究对象,在系统回顾政策创新与扩散以及政策试点相关研究的基础上,提出了政策试点成效影响因素的综合分析框架,并提取试点相关特征进行编码量化,应用离散选择模型(logit Model),对政策试点效果的影响因素进行探寻,发现“试点批准机关层级”“试点设置方式”“试点的范围”以及“试点经费”等因素对试点总体成效影响显著。“经费”因素对政治领域、经济领域影响不显著,但对社会文化领域和生态领域的改革试点成效影响显著;试点事项综合性在试点执行阶段对效果产生负向影响,但在扩散阶段产生正向影响等等。研究在理论上揭示了试点特征相关因素对试点成效的影响及其内在机制,丰富了我国政策试点有关研究文献,并且根据研究发现本文对完善试点统筹管理,健全试点经验推开扩散机制提出了政策建议。

In order to find out the influencing factors of the differences in the effectiveness of the pilot reform,this paper takes 417 pilot reform projects that have included the parameter management since the Third Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee of Zhejiang Province has comprehensively deepened the reform as the research object.On the basis of a systematic review of policy innovation and diffusion as well as the relevant research of the pilot policy,the paper puts forward the influencing factors of the effectiveness of the pilot policy based on the comprehensive analysis framework,the relevant characteristics of the pilot project are extracted and quantified.The influence factors of the policy pilot effect are explored by using the discrete choice model.It is found that the factors such as"the level of the approval authority for the pilot project","the mode of setting up the pilot project","the scope of the pilot project"and"the funding for the pilot project"affect the total number of the pilot projects.Physical effects have a significant impact.The"funds"factor has no significant impact on the political and economic fields,but has a significant impact on the results of the pilot reform in the social,cultural and ecological fields;the comprehensive pilot project has a negative impact on the results in the pilot implementation stage,but has a positive impact in the diffusion stage,and so on.The research reveals the influence of relevant factors of pilot characteristics on the formation of pilot projects and its internal mechanism in theory,enriches the relevant research literature of policy pilot projects in China,and according to the research findings,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for improving the overall management of pilot projects,improving pilot experience and pushing forward the diffusion mechanism.