粤港澳大湾区建设对跨境养老的影响研究——基于福利可携性视角

Study on the Impact of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Construction on Cross-border Pension——From the Perspective of Welfare Portability

将福利可携性纳入跨境养老决策中,构建动态搜寻模型考察跨境养老行为的影响因素,分析香港1997年以来跨境养老政策效果差的原因,并探讨粤港澳大湾区建设背景下跨境养老的变化趋势。研究表明:(1)在终身养老支出最小化决策原则下,香港长者可接受的内地养老资源的保留价格与香港长者想要返回香港养老的概率、香港养老资源价格、养老福利跨境可携程度正相关。现阶段,福利跨境可携程度低是跨境养老率下降、返港率上升的根本原因。(2)粤港澳大湾区建设背景下,福利跨境可携程度提高及香港长者对内地的认同感增强都能提高跨境养老率,但要延长香港长者在内地养老的持续时间,唯有提高香港长者对内地的认同感和归属感。(3)推进跨境养老,突破口是探索公共医疗服务跨境可携的制度安排,提高福利跨境可携程度。

This paper examines the factors affecting cross-border pension decision-making and analyzes the reasons for the poor effect of Hong Kong government's policies aimed at promoting cross-border pension since 1997 by incorporating welfare portability into the dynamic search model for cross-border pension decision,and further discusses the changing trend of cross-border pension under the background of the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Results show that:(1)Based on the decision-making principle of minimizing expenditure for life-long old-age care,Hong Kong elders reservation price of mainland old-age care resources is positively related to the willingness to return to Hong Kong for old-age care,the price of pension resources in Hong Kong and the cross-border portability of pension benefits.The low degree of welfare portability across borders is the fundamental reason for the current decline in the cross-border pension rate.(2)The increase of welfare portability and a higher degree of recognition of life and culture in the mainland will inevitably increase cross-border pension rate.The only way to prolong the duration of cross-border pension is to promote the level of recognition.(3)To promote cross-border pension for the elderly in Hong Kong,the top priority is to improve the cross-border portability of welfare,especially the cross-border portability of public medical services.