基于多源数据的木材价格表编制方法研究

Method of the Establishment of Wood Price Table Based on Multi-source Data

木材价格的研究对指导林业生产经营活动具有重要意义。采用样本数据建立木材产量、销售量和平均价格GM(1,1)模型,采用单因素方差分析比较不同省份和年份木材价格差异性,采用聚类分析对省份进行木材价格一致性分类,基于影响因子建立木材价格广义线性回归模型,采用相对等级法编制了木材价格表。结果表明,建立的全国各省份木材产量和销售量GM(1,1)模型可用于各省份木材供需情况分析;不同省份和不同年份间木材平均价格存在极显著性差异(P<0.01);建立的木材平均价格GM(1,1)模型和广义线性模型模型拟合优度均>0.90,可用于木材平均价格预测;木材平均价格与森林蓄积量、GDP、人口总数和城镇化率的Pearson相关系数>0.90;采用相对等级法编制的木材价格表可用于指导林业生产经营活动。

Researches of lumber price are of significant importance for the guidance of forestry production and management activity.GM(1,1) models of wood production,sales and the average price were established in this study based on yearbook data.One way ANOVA was applied in comparing differences between provinces and years.Consistency of wood price of different provinces was analyzed by cluster analysis method.Generalized linear regression model was established for wood price based on factors affecting the price.Relative ranking method was applied for price list compiling.The results showed that GM(1,1) model could be used to analyze the supply and demand of the woods in different provinces.There were significant differences in average wood prices between provinces and years(P<0.01).Goodness of fitting of GM(1,1) model and the generalized linear model were both higher than 0.90,indicating that they could be used to predict the average wood price.Pearson correlation coefficients between average wood price and forest stock,GDP,population and urbanization rate were greater than 0.90.The wood price list compiled by the relative grade method could be used to guide the forestry production and management activities.