基于主成分回归的丽江国内旅游消费影响因素研究

On Factors Influencing Lijiang Inbound Tourism Based on Principle Component Regression

国内旅游消费作为旅游消费的一个重要组成部分,是促进经济增长的一个重要因素。初步选择对丽江国内旅游消费有影响的21个指标,通过灰色关联分析发现丽江城市道路长度、公共财政预算支出、城镇生活污水集中处理率及全国城镇职工基本养老保险人数、总人口与丽江国内旅游消费有较强的相关关系。构建主成分回归模型,研究发现这五因素对丽江国内旅游消费的增长量都有正向影响。

As an important component of tourism industry, inbound tourism provides an important impetus for economic growth. Twenty-one indicators have been preliminarily selected for Grey Relation Analysis(GRA). The findings show only five factors have a strong correlation with inbound tourists’ choice of Lijiang-urban road length,budget expenditure of public finance, centralized processing rate of urban sewage, the number of urban employees in China having basic pension insurance and the total Chinese population. PCR model is constructed and applied in the study. The results show that these five factors have positive impacts on the growth of Lijiang inbound tourism.