基于蒙特卡洛算法的航空兵场站装备广义维修过程研究

Research IntoGeneralized Maintenance Process for Air Force Station Repairable Equipment

研究了适用于航空兵场站可修装备在多级备件、(s-1,s)库存下的广义维修过程解析模型。基于Monte Carlo算法,迭代产生大量样本数据,经过拟合发现该维修过程依分布收敛于一对数正态分布;再针对该样本分别以OLS(最小二乘),ML(极大似然)估计进行参数推断,得到了其稳态分布函数,通过了拟合优度检验。最后解出了该情况下装备的稳态维修度,稳态可用度等参数。对比simlox模型对该装备的评估结果,数据吻合程度较为理想。

This paper explores the generalized maintenance processmodelapplied to air force stationrepairable equipment at multiple levels of spare parts and inventory.Based on the Monte Carlo algorithm,a large number of sampledata are generated by iteration.After fitting,themaintenance process is found to converge to the Lognor-mality in distribution,parameters are deduced by the least squaresmethod and maximum likelihood evaluate-on,and then steady state distribution function is obtained.Through the goodness-of-fit test,finally,the parameters of steady state maintenance and availability are obtained.Compared with evaluation results of simlox model for the system,the data consistency is ideal.