基于GREET模型的新能源汽车全生命周期的环境与经济效益分析

ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMY ANALYSIS ON ENTIRE LIFE CIRCLE OF NEW ENERGY VEHICLES BASED ON GREET MODEL

运用GREET模型和WTW体系,对比分析汽车全生命周期内,传统内燃机汽车和三种新能源汽车(纯电动汽车、混合动力汽车、燃料电池汽车)的能源消耗量和污染物排放量,并对其进行货币化,得到的结果如下:1)从耗能上看,在相同的能源结构与技术路线下,新能源汽车相较于传统内燃机汽车更能节约能源的使用。纯电动汽车(BEV)的全生命周期能耗最小,与传统内燃机汽车相比减少了42%。2)从排放的污染物总量上来看,新能源汽车对温室气体的减排效应明显,混合动力汽车、燃料电池汽车、纯电动汽车相比传统内燃机汽车的温室气体减排效应分别为5.78%,32.86%,21.54%,而对酸雨污染物和固体颗粒物,新能源汽车反倒加重了排放,纯电动汽车相比传统内燃机汽车,对酸雨污染物的排放增加了35.36%。3)从总成本角度分析,除了氢燃料电池汽车以外,其他新能源汽车的成本均低于传统内燃机汽车。4)发展新能源汽车尤其是纯电动汽车,在一定程度上利大于弊,其排放缺点可随着中国能源结构的改善而改变。

This paper applies GREET model and WTW system to compare their energy consumption and pollution emission in a form of currency between the traditional petroleum and new energy vehicles(battery electrical,hybrid and fuel cell vehicles)during their entire life circles.On energy consumption,new energy vehicles save energy under similar energy structure and technical parameters.BEV is on the top in energy consumption with a decrease by 42%with the traditional petroleum vehicles.New energy vehicles chiefly contribute to carbon emission reduction,falling by 5.78%on hybrid,32.86 on feul cell,and 21.54%on BEV compared to traditional,but with an increase by 35.36%on acid rain pollution emission.From the total costs,new energy vehicles are lower than the traditional except the BEV.Developing new energy vehicles,especially the BEV,is somewhat of more advantages than disadvantages,which may be improved as China’s energy structure alters.