长江经济带的产业转移是否夹带污染?——基于107个城市的研究

IS POLLUTION BORNE WITH INDUSTRIAL TRANSFER OF YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC ZONE BASED ON 107 CITIES’ DATA?

长江经济带是我国区域开发战略示范带,更是生态文明建设的先行示范带。以长江经济带的107个地级市为研究对象,运用偏离份额法分析了其产业转移趋势,发现下游地区为主要转出区且由核心向非核心城市转移,中上游地区整体为产业转入区且交互转移明显。构建2003-2016年的面板数据模型,实证结果表明产业转移确实伴随了污染转移,但存在着时间拐点和区域差异。以废水和烟尘为主要排放物的产业转移到了转入区,而以二氧化硫为主要污染物的产业并没有大幅度转出。2011年后环保政策的收紧有效地降低了长江经济带废水和废气的排放,但烟尘排放显著增加。提出应结合地区环境状况和产业特征制定定向转移政策的建议,为引导长江经济带产业有序转移提供借鉴。

The Yangtze River Economic Zone is a model zone for regional development strategy and a model zone for ecological culture construction as well. This paper, based on 107 cities along the zone, uses the shift-share to analyze its industrial transfer trend and finds that the transfer mainly out of down-stream goes to the up-stream with core to non-core cities at an interactive transferring. This paper establishes a 2003-2016 panel data model which verifies that pollution comes with this transfer, varying at time and space. Industries with discharge as waste water and dusts are transferred, but ones with discharge as sulfide dioxide are not. After 2011 the environmental policies get tighten, effectively decreasing the discharge of waste gas and water, but increasing the dusts. Policies are suggested in accordance with local environment and industries, offering references for transferring orderly industries in the Yangtze River Economic Zone.