基于灰关联的电子商务与物流关系实证分析

Empirical analysis of e -commerce and logistics relationship based on grey correlation

为探究电子商务与物流的关联性,采用灰关联分析法对2008-2018年的电子商务行业和物流行业的年度数据进行实证分析,结果显示:快递业务量与网络零售额的关联系数接近1,与电商总交易额、B2B交易额、跨境电商交易额的关联系数介于0.65~0.85;民航、公路、水路和铁路的货物周转量与各电商交易额的关联系数介于0.35~0.65.上述结果说明,快递业务量与网络零售额几乎完全相关,耦合作用非常明显;快递业务量与电商总交易额、B2B交易额、跨境电商交易额的关联程度较高,耦合作用较明显;民航、公路、水路和铁路的货物周转量与各电商交易额的关联程度一般,耦合作用中等.

In order to explore the relevance between e-commerce and logistics, the annual data of e-commerce and logistics industries from 2008 to 2018 is empirically analyzed through grey relational analysis(GRA). The results show that the correlation coefficient between express service volume and the internet retail sales is close to 1;the correlation coefficient between express service volume and total transaction volume of e-commerce, B2 B e-commerce transaction volume and cross-border e-commerce transaction volume is between 0.65 and 0.85;the correlation coefficient between the cargo turnovers of civil aviation, road, waterway and railway and each e-commerce transaction volume is between 0.35 and 0.65. According to the above results, the express service volume is almost entirely relevant to the network retail sales, thus, the coupling effect is very obvious, and the correlation level between the express service volume and total transaction volume of e-commerce, B2 B e-commerce transaction volume and cross-border e-commerce transaction volume is comparatively high, thus, the coupling effect is relatively obvious too. And at the same time, the correlation level between the cargo turnovers of civil aviation, road, waterway and railway and each e-commerce transaction volume is general, thus, the coupling effect is moderate.