老挝物流发展与进出口贸易因果关系研究

Research on Causal Relationship between Logistics Development and Import and Export Trade in Laos

首先分别对以定性分析和定量分析方法对老挝的物流发展或进出口贸易进行研究的相关文献进行梳理;然后针对老挝物流发展与进出口贸易现状,以物流运输公路和物流货运量代表物流发展指标,运用协整检验和误差修正模型实证分析了老挝物流发展与进出口贸易之间长期和短期的关系,再以格兰杰因果检验分析两者之间存在的因果关系,研究得出老挝的物流发展对进出口贸易存在促进作用;最后针对老挝现有物流与贸易问题提出对策建议。

In this paper we first sorted the relevant literatures on the study of the logistics development or the import and export trade in Laos by both qualitative and quantitative methods.Then,according to the current situation of the logistics development and import and export trade industries in the country,and with highway mileage and logistics volume as the indicators of the logistics development level,we used the co-integration test and error correction model to empirically analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between the logistics development and import and export trade in Laos,then proceeded to analyze the causal relationship between the two using Granger causality test,finding that logistics development has a promoting role for the import and export trade in Laos,and,finally,proposed the countermeasures and suggestions for the problems existing with the logistics and trade industries in Laos.