采用模糊实物期权方法求解PPP项目特许期

Decision-making of Concession Period for PPP Projects Based on Fuzzy Real Option

特许期是PPP项目中的关键参数之一,能否对其合理确定直接影响着项目的成败。在实物期权方法基础上,对其中的不确定性参数进行模糊化,提出政府和社会资本分别确定投资回报率的左右极值,并以此为约束条件建立特许期决策模型,使特许期确定在一个范围之内。社会资本通过考虑项目未来发展的形势,确定悲观系数,运用加权平均法求得项目特许期。结合实际案例与传统净现值方法对比表明:项目中存在期权价值,社会资本对期权价值的考虑能更加准确确定项目特许期;同时运用模糊方法将参数的不确定性量化在一定范围之内,能够使社会资本决策更具柔性,并为政府决策提供参考。

The concession period of PPP project is a critical parameter and directly affects the success of the project.This paper fuzzes the uncertain parameters based on the real option method,then sets the extremum of the return rate on investment for government and social capital,respectively,which is used as the constraint to establish a concession period decision model that determines the concession period in a range.Social capital determines the pessimistic coefficient by considering the future development situation of the project.The concession period is obtained with the weighted mean method.This paper compares actual cases with classical net present value method and shows that option value exists in the project.The consideration of the real option by social capital can determine the concession period more accurately.Ultimately,restricting the uncertainty of parameters in a certain scope with fuzzy method can make the decision-making of social capital in a more flexible manner.The findings of this study can provide guidance for the government.