基于FAHP和关联规则的建筑施工事故隐患风险动态评价

Dynamic Assessment of Construction Potential Accident Risk Based on the FAHP and Association Rules Algorithm

近年建筑施工安全生产事故频发,事故的发生又是由于事故隐患动态治理失控导致,如何结合隐患风险动态变化情况,分配有限隐患治理资源就至关重要。本文提出一种全新的基于模糊层次分析法(FAHP)和关联规则算法的隐患风险动态评价组合模型。建立4个一级和12个二级隐患评价指标,利用模糊层次分析法的专家主观评分,与归一化后的客观数据进行合成,再利用关联规则算法分析隐患台账进行动态评价。通过对各隐患风险随时间变化趋势的分析,得到每个隐患全期所占比例以及增减趋势,找到隐患管理的轻重缓急。通过对同期隐患风险比例的分析,得到同一时期各隐患风险的分布情况,为分配有限的隐患治理资源提供了参考。该模型最大限度利用客观数据以保证结果精准,为建筑施工企业隐患动态管理提供指导。

In recent years,accident of safety production in construction occurred frequently,accidents are also caused by the failure of dynamic control of potential accident.How to combine the dynamic changes of potential accident risk,it is essential that allocate limited resources of management potential accident.This paper presents a new dynamic evaluation model of potential accident based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)and association rules algorithm.This paper sets up 4 primary and 12 secondary potential accident evaluation index,combining the expert subjective evaluation though FAHP and the objective data after normalization,then using potential accident standing books though association rules algorithm to evaluate dynamically.Though analysis on the trends of every potential accident risk over time,these works can obtain all the potential accident risk value in different periods of time which risk values are at a high level or a rising trend,then find out the important potential accident in order of priority.Though analysis on every potential accident ratio in corresponding period,these works can obtain distribution of potential accident risk over the same period,which can provide reference for allocate limited resources of management potential accident.This model can utilize furthest objective data to ensure the results accurately,these works provide the guidance for construction enterprises of potential accident dynamic management.