我国地方政府隐性债务治理问题研究

Research on Local Government Implicit Debt Governance in China

加强地方政府隐性债务治理是维持地方财政可持续性和防范化解系统性金融风险的必然要求。文章主要对我国地方财政收支可持续性及政府显性和隐性债务现状进行评估,运用财政非线性反应函数测算地方政府债务上限。研究发现:当前我国地方财政运行中存在“财政疲劳”现象;当前地方政府仍具有充足的债务空间,地方政府债务上限为191%;债务风险主要受经济增长速度和实际债务利率影响,防止经济增速过快下滑可以防范债务风险,地方政府应采取措施降低债务融资成本。文章最后提出创新地方基础设施投融资模式、明晰政府职能与规范支出边界、构建差异化地方税体系、健全基层政府财力保障机制、加强政府投资绩效管理等我国地方政府隐性债务治理路径。

Systematic governance of local government implicit debt is an inevitable requirement for maintaining local fiscal sustainability and preventing and mitigating systemic financial risks.In evaluating the sustainability of local fiscal revenues and expenditures and the status of government explicit and implicit debts since the new economic normal,this paper uses the non-linear financial response function to measure the local government debt ceiling.The research shows that there is indeed**financial fatigue"in the local financial operation of China;the local government debt ceiling is 191%,and sufficient debt space ensures that the current local government is still financially sustainable;the local government debt risk mainly depends on the economic growth rate and the actual debt interest rate.Therefore,the risk prevention must not allow the economic growth rate to decline too fast,and measures should be taken to reduce the debt financing cost.Finally,from the perspective of fiscal sustainability,the path of local government implicit debt governance is proposed,including innovative local infrastructure investment and financing model,clarifying government functions and regulating expenditure boundaries,building a differentiated local tax system,improving the financial guarantee mechanism of grassroots governments,and strengthening Government investment performance management,etc.