我国区域发展风险评估及时空格局演变

The evolution of China’s regional development risk assessment in time and space

区域风险是未来发展过程中所面临的不确定性,具有多维度性,非均衡性与动态演化性等特点。从区域视角研究了我国的发展风险问题,构建了区域发展风险评价体系与模型,以此对后金融危机时代中国区域发展风险特征进行了评估。研究得到如下结论:1)区域发展风险评价体系包含债务金融,生态环境,社会稳定,经济基础与创新能力5个维度15个三级指标,其中社会稳定系统与债务金融系统所占权重较高,而创新能力系统与生态环境系统所占权重相对较低。2)2008-2017年间我国区域发展风险整体上有所下降,其在空间分布上表现为非均衡的特点。3)区域发展风险具有显著正向全局空间自相关关系,空间自相关程度有所增加,局部空间自相关相对较为稳定,相同空间关系属性在空间上呈现出集中连片分布的特征。文章同时提出了区域发展风险控制的若干建议。

Regional risk is the uncertainty faced in the future development process,with multi-dimensionality,non-equilibrium and dynamic evolution.This paper studies the development risk of China from a regional perspective,and constructs a regional development risk assessment system and model to evaluate the characteristics of Chinas regional development risk in the post-financial crisis era.The research has the following conclusions:1)The regional development risk rating system includes 15 three-level indicators of debt finance,ecological environment,social stability,economic foundation and innovation capability.The social stability system and the debt financial system have higher weights.The innovation capability system and the ecological environment system have relatively low weights.2)During 2008-2017,Chinas regional development risks have declined overall,and its spatial distribution is characterized by non-equilibrium.3)The regional development risk has a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation relationship,the spatial autocorrelation degree increases,the local spatial self-phase is relatively stable,and the same spatial relationship property presents a concentrated contiguous distribution in space.The article also puts forward some suggestions for regional development risk control.