政府治理能力与经济增长的门槛效应——以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

Research on Threshold Effect of Government Governance Capacity and Economic Growth——Taking the Belt And Road Countries as Examples

“一带一路”沿线国家政府治理能力对经济增长的影响,由于各国发展阶段不同而表现出区间效应。研究采用“一带一路”沿线62个国家在2008-2017年的数据,构建门槛面板模型检验发现:一是治理能力与经济增长之间具有非线性关系,存在不同经济区间下治理能力差异化的经济影响;二是治理能力的经济效应具有两个门槛值,人均GDP低于2292美元为第一和第二门槛区间,治理能力不同程度抑制经济增长;高于2292美元为第三门槛区间,治理能力显著促进经济增长,越来越多的国家进入到此门槛,说明治理能力日益促进沿线国家经济增长。可见,“一带一路”推进下的政府治理能力提升至关重要,是促进经济发展的重要因素,更是推动国家现代化进程的重要力量。

The influence of government governance capacity on economic growth of countries along the Belt and Road shows interval effect due to different development stages.Based on the data of 62 countries along the Belt and Road from 2008 to 2017,the threshold panel model was constructed to test the following findings:firstly,there is a nonlinear relationship between governance capacity and economic growth,also a differential economic impact of governance capacity under different economic intervals;Then,there are two thresholds for the economic effect of governance capacity.Per capita GDP is lower than $2,292,which is the first and second threshold range,Governance capacity inhibits economic growth to different degrees.More than $2,292 is the third threshold,and governance capacity significantly promotes economic growth.More and more countries enter this threshold,which proved the governance capability increasingly promotes economic growth of countries along the Belt and Road.Visibly,It is of great significance to improve the government governance capacity by the Belt and Road Initiative,which is a vital factor to promote economic development,and an important force to promote the modernization process of the country.TKey words:The Belt and Road;Government governance capacity;Economic growth;The threshold value;Threshold panel model.