隔代照料对城市双职家庭婴幼儿照护服务需求的影响——兼论家庭经济收入的调节效应

Grandchild-Caring and Its Crowding-Out Effect on Demand for Infant Care Services in Urban Dual-Earner Families:The Role of Household Economic income

本文以“城市家庭3岁以下婴幼儿托育服务需求调查”数据为基础,运用二元Logistic回归、倾向值分析方法和实地调研获得的访谈资料,研究隔代照料对城市双职家庭婴幼儿照护服务需求的影响。研究发现:(1)隔代照料对城市双职家庭的婴幼儿照护服务需求有显著挤出效应,并且该效应在使用倾向值加权方法控制隔代照料的内生选择性后仍然显著;(2)受隔代照料选择性偏差的影响,常规二元Logistic回归分析会低估隔代照料的挤出效应,基于三种倾向值贪婪匹配的分析验证了该结果的稳健性;(3)家庭经济收入对隔代照料与城市双职家庭的婴幼儿照护服务需求具有调节效应,隔代照料对中低收入家庭婴幼儿照护服务需求的挤出效应尤为明显,且家庭经济收入越低挤出效应越大,对高收入家庭则没有显著影响。在全面两孩政策推行、女性高劳动参与和快速人口老龄化时代,对城市双职家庭在婴幼儿照料问题上面临的实际需求和突出困难,既要倡导代际亲情互助,充分发扬家庭领域隔代照料的优良传统;还要积极探索将隔代照料纳入正式的婴幼儿照护服务体系,支持引导其向科学化、高质量、可持续的方向发展,更好满足不同家庭的多元化需求。

Based on the data of‘Survey of the demand for care services for children under 3 years in urban families’,this paper studies the impact of grandchild-caring on the demand for infant care services in urban dual-service families by taking use of binary logistic regression,propensity score analysis and interview materials obtained from field work.It is found that:(1)Grandchild-caring has a significant crowding-out effect on the demand for infant care services in urban dual-earner families,and this crowding-out effect is still significant after using propensity score weighting method to control the endogenous selectivity of grandchild-caring;(2)Influenced by selective bias,binary logistic regression underestimates the crowding-out effect of grandchild-caring,and further analyses based on three kinds of greedy matching by propensity score verifies the robustness of the result;(3)The household economic income has a moderating effect on the demand for infant care services and grandchild-caring.The crowding-out effect of grandchild-caring in both low-income and middle-income families is particularly obvious,and the lower the household economic income,the greater the crowding-out effect is,high-income families unaffected.In the era of comprehensive two-child policy,high female labor participation and rapid population aging,to meet different families’multi-tiered demands,we should not only advocate intergenerational kinship and mutual assistance to fully develop the fine tradition of grandchild-caring,but also actively explore how to integrate grandchild-caring into the formal infant care service system,to support and guide its scientific,high-quality and sustainable development.