居民预期视角下房地产市场波动：解释与特征事实

Real Estate Market Fluctuation from the Perspective of Expectation:Interpretation and Characteristic Facts

全球金融危机虽已过去十多年,但如何解释房地产市场的繁荣及衰退的问题依然是一个难题,目前也没有形成一致结论。从居民预期行为角度解析房地产市场的过度波动成为近年来一个新的研究视角,亦是构建房地产市场健康发展长效机制的重要前提。本文首先从理论进展层面介绍了异质性预期的相互转换机制对房价波动的解释能力;进一步地,从经验层面介绍了个体预期及城市间的相互传染对金融危机的解释能力;最后,独特地获取了国家景气监测中心的非公开微观调查数据,并利用统计分析初步检验中美两国消费者预期行为的基本特征及与房地产市场波动的相关关系,窥见其中异同点。在此基础上,本文对未来研究方向做出展望和说明。

How to explain the prosperity and recession of the real estate market in the past ten years of the subprime mortgage crisis remains a difficult task.There is no consistent conclusion either.Recently,analysis of the excessive volatility of the real estate market from the perspective of expectation has become a new research trend and also provides an important view to strengthen the macro-prudential management of real estate finance.This paper introduces the interpretative ability of heterogeneous expectation of mutual conversion mechanism to housing price volatility.Further,from the empirical level,it explains how individual expectation and its inter-city mutual transmission caused the subprime mortgage crisis.Finally,we obtain unique survey data to give statistical analysis to test the basic characteristics of consumers'expected behaviors and the correlation with the real estate market fluctuations between China and the United States.On this basis,this paper makes a prospect for the future research direction.