农民工职业培训投资决策研究

Study on Investment Decision-making of Vocational Training for Migrant Workers

随着科技的不断进步,机器设备的智能化程度越来越高,在劳动力密集型行业,已出现智能机器设备取代人工的现象,我国广大农民工面临着失业压力。通过对相关研究文献的梳理可知,职业技能培训能够有效缓解农民工面临的失业压力;通过应用实物期权理论,将农民工的人力资本投资过程转化为含有实物期权的决策序列,运用二叉树方法建立农民工参与职业培训所获收益的估值模型。研究发现,相较于传统的净现值估值方法,复合实物期权考虑了农民工决策的灵活性,该方法对农民工参加职业培训收益的估值更加精确。

With the continuous progress of science and technology, the intelligent degree of machines is increasing. In labor-intensive industry, some intelligent machinery and equipment have replaced manual labor.The vast number of migrant workers in China is facing unemployment pressure. By analyzing relevant research literature, we can see that vocational training can effectively alleviate the unemployment pressure faced by migrant workers. And according to real option theory, this paper transforms human capital investment process into a decision sequence which contains real options and utilizes binomial methodology to establish pricing models for earnings of vocational training. It is found that comparing to net present value method, compound real options can evaluate the profit of human capital investment more accurately by fully considering flexibility of decision-making.