丙烯产业发展现状及趋势分析

Present situation and trend analysis of propylene industry

丙烯是重要的石油化工产品之一,也是三大合成材料的基本原料,是聚丙烯、丙烯腈、环氧丙烷、丙烯酸等大宗化工产品的主要原料。近年来,随着煤制丙烯和丙烷脱氢等新兴生产工艺的迅速发展,蒸汽裂解及催化裂化等传统工艺也有新增产能,丙烯供应扩张速度不断加快,未来原料多元化依然是主流发展方向。供应增加的同时,下游产能也将继续释放,丙烯市场供需缺口依然持续存在,但呈现逐年缩减的趋势。未来丙烯行业利润水平依然较高,不过盈利能力有小幅下降的可能,下游利润水平可能出现分化。

Propylene is one of the important petrochemical products as well as the basic raw material of the three major synthetic materials.It is the main raw material for major chemical products such as polypropylene,acrylonitrile,propylene oxide,and acrylic acid.In recent years,with the rapid development of new production processes such as coal to propene and propane dehydrogenation,traditional processes such as steam cracking and catalytic cracking have also increased production capacity,and the expansion of propylene supply is accelerating.In the future,the diversification of feedstock is still the mainstream development direction.As supply increases,downstream production capacity will continue to be released,and the gap between supply and demand in the propylene market continues to exist,but it shows a trend of shrinking year by year.Profit levels in the future are still high in the propylene industry,but there is a possibility that profitability will decline slightly and downstream profit levels may diverge.