基于VAR模型的农业碳排放影响因素及其动态响应机制分析

Analysis of factors affecting agricultural carbon emission based on VAR model and its dynamic response mechanism

基于中国2001-2017年的相关时间序列数据,构建VAR(向量自回归)模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法实证研究了环境规制、农业经济增长、技术进步与农业碳排放之间的动态响应机制。结果表明,环境规制、技术进步是农业碳排放减少的原因,农业经济增长是农业碳排放增加的原因;环境规制对农业碳排放的负向影响显著,技术进步对农业碳排放的负向影响相对较弱,而农业经济增长对农业碳排放的正向影响明显,但呈逐渐下降趋势;从长期来看,环境规制、农业经济增长和技术进步对农业碳排放的影响效应处于相对稳定的状态。最后,基于上述研究结果提出了相关政策建议。

Based on the relevant time series data of China from 2001 to 2017, a VAR(vector autoregressive) model was constructed, and the dynamic response mechanism between environmental regulation, agricultural economic growth, technological progress and agricultural carbon emission was empirically studied by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method. The results show that environmental regulation and technological progress are the reasons for the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions. Agricultural economic growth is the cause of the increase of agricultural carbon emissions;environmental regulation has a significant negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions. The negative impact of technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions is relatively weak, while the positive impact of agricultural economic growth on agricultural carbon emissions is obvious, but it is gradually decreasing. In the long run, the effects of environmental regulation,agricultural economic growth and technological progress on agricultural carbon emissions are relatively stable. Finally, based on the above research results, relevant policy recommendations are proposed.