全面建成小康社会进程监测及路径优化

Process monitoring and path optimization of building a well-off society in an all-round way

构建指标体系,采用综合评价法结合经验数据对小康社会实现程度进行计算,并运用Holt-Winter非季节模型进行预测。结果表明,中国2020年能够如期实现全面建成小康社会的目标,但指标实现程度呈现出不均衡的状况,其中生活质量与经济发展指标超额完成,社会和谐、民主法制、文化教育、资源环境实现程度不够理想,在二级指标中存在着显著的短板指标,且实现程度存在着较大的城乡差异。因而,全面建成小康社会要处理好增长与发展的关系,重点关注突破短板指标,实施乡村振兴与区域发展战略,以实现更高质量的全面小康。

An index system was constructed, and the comprehensive evaluation method and empirical data were used to calculate the realization degree of well-off society, and the Holt-Winter non-seasonal model was used for prediction. It turns out that China can achieve the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020, but the degree of achievement of the indicators shows an uneven situation. The indicators of quality of life and economic development were over-fulfilled,and the degree of social harmony, democracy, legal system, culture and education, resources and environment were not satisfactory. There were significant short-board indicators in the secondary indicators, and there were large urban-rural differences in the degree of realization. Therefore, to build a well-off society in an all-round way, it is suggested to handle the relationship between growth and development, focus on breaking through the short-board indicators, and implement the strategy of rural rejuvenation and regional development to achieve a higher-quality, well-off society.