双重体系视角下文在寅政府的对朝政策

Policies of Moon Jae-in Administration toward DPRK:A Dual System Perspective

冷战结束后,韩国对朝政策始终受半岛地缘政治的影响,并局限于美国对朝政策的框架内。2018年以来,美、韩、朝三方达成的无核化共识成为了半岛形势新的发展契机,文在寅政府意图通过"新阳光政策"推动东北亚经济合作体系发展,从而建立起朝鲜半岛的地缘经济优势,以此摆脱受地缘政治影响的半岛安全困境。文在寅政府"新阳光政策"固然给半岛局势注入了新的活力并带来和平发展契机,但美韩同盟体系以及韩国的安全需求令其对朝政策在双重体系的内在矛盾对冲下逐渐式微。当前半岛局势虽缓和,但彻底解决半岛安全困境仍任重道远。解决半岛问题更需多方共同努力,韩国对朝战略仍需进一步调整,保持其对朝战略有效平衡双重体系的矛盾对冲力,将是韩国推动半岛走出安全困境的关键钥匙。

After the Cold War,ROK’s policy towards DPRK has always been restricted by the geopolitics of the Korean Peninsula as well as the U. S. policy towards DPRK. In 2018,DPRK,U. S. and ROK totally reached consensus on denuclearization,which offered an opportunity for the improvement of the situation of the Korean Peninsula. The Moon Jae-in administration attempted to promote the development of Northeast Asia’s economic cooperation system through its "New Sunshine Policy",so as to establish the geo-economic advantage of the Korean Peninsula and get rid of the security dilemma of the Peninsula that has been affected by geopolitics. Although Moon Jae-in administration’s "New Sunshine Policy"injected new vigor into the situation on the Korean Peninsula and brought opportunity for peaceful development,the existence of the U. S.-ROK alliance system and ROK’s security needs have weakened its policy towards the DPRK under the impact of internal contradictions in the dual system,resulting in the situation that although the current situation on the Peninsula is eased,it is still uncertain to completely solve the security dilemma on the Peninsula. Obviously,the ROK’s strategy towards the DPRK still needs further adjustment,and the solution of the Korean Peninsula issue requires the joint efforts of multiple parties.Maintaining the effective balance of the contradictory momentum of the dual system of its strategy towards the DPRK will be the key for the ROK to push the Korean Peninsula out of the security dilemma.