空气污染对手足口病传播的短期影响效应研究——以温州市为例

Short-term Effects of Air Pollution on the Spreading of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease:A Case Study in Wenzhou

基于温州市手足口病2014-2017年周发病数据及同期空气质量数据,建立了广义加性模型,研究了空气污染对周发病数影响的短期效应.结果表明,4种空气污染物SO2、CO、NO2和O3对手足口病周发病数的影响显著且存在滞后效应,滞后期均为1周.单污染物模型显示,SO2、CO和NO2这三种气态污染物都是手足口病发病的危险因素,在滞后1周时周平均浓度每增加1μg/m3SO2、1 mg/m3CO、1μg/m3NO2,手足口周发病数将分别增加2.8%、43.8%、0.9%;而O3在滞后1周时周平均浓度每增加1μg/m3,手足口周发病数将减少0.4%.在SO2、CO、NO2和O3组成的11种多污染物模型中,依据QAIC最小原则选出最优模型为双因素SO2+CO模型.研究结果将为手足口病的防控提供科学依据.

Based on the weekly reported data of hand, foot and mouth disease(HFMD) incidence in Wenzhou from 2014 to 2017 and air quality data in the same period, a generalized additive model was established to study the short-term effects of air pollution on the weekly reported number of incidence. The results showed that the four air pollutants SO2, CO, NO2 and O3 had significant and lagging effects on the weekly number of HFMD incidence, and the lagging period was one week. Single pollutant model showed that SO2, CO and NO2 were risk factors for HFMD incidence, and the weekly number of HFMD incidence would increase by 2.8%, 43.8% and 0.9% with the increase of average weekly concentration of every 1 μg/m3 SO2,1 mg/m3 CO,1 μg/m3 NO2 after one week delay, while the weekly number of HFMD incidence would decrease by 0.4% with the increase of average weekly concentration of O3 at every 1/m3 after one week delay. In the 11 multi-pollutant models composed of SO2, CO, NO2 and O3, the SO2+CO model was selected as the optimal model according to the QAIC minimum principle. Our results will provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD.