预防性战争:逻辑、伦理、美国经验及启示

Preventive War:Logic,Morality as well as American Experiences and Their Enlightenment

预防性战争是在权势结构中占据优势的国家为预先阻止本国与敌手之间不利于己的权势转移而发动的战争行为,其战略目标在于继续维持本国的权势优越地位和安全环境,旨在使用武力来延缓、阻止当下已经显现、日后可能会更加危险的战略未来。预防性战争是国家战略的一种运用方式,权势转移及由此引发的恐惧是其产生的两大基本动因。预防性战争为现行国际法所禁止,但西方国际关系研究却往往对之持有理论同情。作为当前国际秩序的霸权国家和守成大国,美国在历史上发动的预防性战争数量有限,但预防性思维却长期在美国的战略决策中发挥重要作用。随着国际政治经济的演进,预防性思维在美国当前对外战略中突现,面对崛起国实力发展,美国未来仍有发动预防性战争的可能。阻止预防性战争爆发的根本,在于超越国际政治的现实主义逻辑。中国的和平发展有望为突破"国强必霸"""国强必战"思维提供中国智慧和中国方案。

Preventive war is the war waged by a state in an advantageous position within the power structure to avert beforehand the power transfer in favor of its rival,with a strategic purpose of maintaining its dominance and keeping the security environment in its favor,which is intended to put off or prevent by force the emerging dangerous strategic situation that may get even worse in the future if not prevented.Preventive war is a way to operate national strategy,while power transfer and fear thus incurred are the two causes for its outbreak.Although preventive war is banned by the existing international law,international studies in the West have sympathy for it in theory.As the current hegemonic power in the existing international order and an established power,the US staged few preventive wars in history,but preventive thinking has always played an important role in US strategic decision.With the evolving international political and economic situation,preventive thinking has become more outstanding in US foreign strategy presently.Faced with the growing strength of a rising power,it is likely that the US will wage a preventive war.The fundamental way out for preventing a preventive way lies in transcending the realistic logic in international politics.China’s peaceful development is hopeful to contribute China’s wisdom and approach for breaking through the mentality of"strong power is bound to become hegemonic"and"strong power is bound to go to war".