降水和人类活动对三岔河上游径流量变化的贡献

The impacts of climate change and human activities to the streamflow in the Upper Reach of Sanchahe River Basin

以黔中水利枢纽工程水源区——三岔河上游为研究对象,采用累积距平法分析了该流域1990-2016年降水量和径流量的变化趋势,揭示了降水量变化过程中存在2001和2013年两个突变点,而径流量变化过程中只存在2001年1个突变点。运用累积量斜率变化率比较法,定量估算不同时期降水和人类活动对三岔河上游径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:以1990-2001年作为基准期,2002-2013年降水和人类活动对径流量减小的贡献率分别为59.37%和40.63%;2014-2016年降水和人类活动对径流量减小的贡献率分别为50.82%和49.18%。表明降水是三岔河上游径流量变化的主要影响因素,而人类活动对径流量变化的影响在增加。

The accumulative anomaly analysis method was used to analyze the changing trends of the precipitation and runoff from 1990 to 2016 in the upper Sanchahe River Basin,the water source area of the Qianzhong Hydraulic Project.Two mutational points in the process of precipitation change in the upper Sanchahe River Basin in 2001 and 2013 were detected.However,there was only one abrupt point in 2001 in the process of runoff change.The slope change ratio of cumulative quantity was adopted to estimate the contribution rates of the precipitation and human activities to the runoff change in different time periods.The results showed:taking 1990-2001 as the base period,the contribution of precipitation and human activities to the decreased runoff were 59.37%and 40.63%in 2002-2013,while the contribution rates of precipitation and human activities to the reduction of runoff from 2014 to 2016 were 50.82%and 49.18%,respectively.This study have shown that precipitation was the main influencing factor to runoff change in the upper Sanchahe River Basin,and the influence of human activities to runoff change was increasing.