美联储货币政策转向,利率中枢下调——2019年美元拆借市场回顾和展望

Fed’s Monetary Policy Witnessed a Shift and Interest Rates Recorded a Fall--Review and Outlook of the USD Lending Market in 2019

2019年,境外资金市场一波三折,美联储通过3次降息使隔夜利率下降,引导利率中枢下调,下半年国际美元流动性趋紧后,美国货币政策转向宽松,短端收益率下降。境内美元隔夜拆借利率基本与境外趋同,但是波动率远远小于境外。文章分析了美元流动性波动成因及境内外价差的原因,并展望了2020年货币政策和境内外美元资金利率形势。

In 2019,the overseas money market has been quite turbulent.The Fed cut interest rates three times to reduce theO/N rate,driving the central pivot of interest rates down.Following the tightening up of the US dollar liquidity in theinternational market in the second half of the year,the US monetary policy switched to easing and the short-term yieldsdeclined.The onshore USD O/N lending rate in China moved basically in line with that in the o ffshore market but wasfar less volatile than the latter.This article analyzes the causes of the volatility of USD liquidity and the reasons behindthe onshore and o ffshore interest rate spread,and then o ffers an outlook into the monetary policy and USD interestrates in both the onshore and o ffshore markets in 2020.