基于组合赋权法与集对分析的装配式建筑施工安全风险评价

Construction safety risk assessment of prefabricated buildings based on combination weighting method and set pair analysis

针对装配式建筑施工工艺复杂、施工阶段风险概率高、传统的风险评估方法不能预测其发展态势等问题,综合考虑人为因素、设备与材料、施工技术、安全监督与管理以及周边环境共5个影响因素,通过确定拟评价样本的隶属函数,采用层次分析法和熵权法的主客观组合赋权方法计算安全风险评价指标权重,建立基于同异反分析的安全风险评价模型,对装配式建筑施工安全风险进行评价,并利用集对理论分析评价指标的四阶发展趋势。研究结果表明:案例中的装配式建筑施工项目安全风险评价等级为中等风险,与调研结果相吻合;评价方法能真实可靠反映装配式建筑施工安全风险评价过程中的模糊性和随机性,提高了装配式建筑施工安全风险评价的精度;该综合评价模型不仅能够对装配式建筑施工安全风险等级进行判定,还能准确预测风险变化的趋势,实现静态评价和动态评价的有效结合。

For the complex construction process, high risk probability during the construction, unpredictable development situation with traditional risk assessment methods of prefabricated buildings, five influencing factors which are human factors, equipment and materials, construction technology, safety supervision and management, and surrounding environments are considered comprehensively, the membership function of the sample to be evaluated is determined, the weight of the security risk assessment index is calculated by the subjective and objective combination weighting method using the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight method, a safety risk assessment model is established to evaluate the construction safety risk of prefabricated buildings based on the similarity, difference and counter analysis, and the set pair theory is used to analyze the fourth-order development trend of the index. The results show that the safety risk of the example project is medium, which is consistent with the survey results. The evaluation method can truly and reliably reflect the fuzziness and randomness in the process of safety risk evaluation of prefabricated buildings and improve the accuracy. This comprehensive evaluation model can not only determine the construction safety risk level of prefabricated buildings, but also accurately predict the trend of risk, and realize the effective combination of static evaluation and dynamic evaluation.