摘要
通过引入三角模糊数,结合智能制造企业特点和投资者对R&D项目发展的乐观度,对实物期权价值评估模型进行改进,应用改进后的模型对富士康科技集团8k显示器研发项目进行分析,发现项目期权价值与资产现值、无风险利率、建设时间呈正相关,与执行期价格呈负相关。改进后的模型能从一定程度上降低研发周期中的风险性和不确定性因素的影响,使投资者能根据R&D项目实际的进展情况灵活决策,提高期望收益预测的准确性。
Combining the characteristics of intelligent manufacturing enterprises and investors’optimism about the developmentof R&D projects,the paper improves real option value assessment model by introducing triangular fuzzy numbers.With the application of improved model,the paper analyzes 8k display R&D projects in Foxconn Technology Group and it’s found that theproject option value is positively associated with the cash equivalent value,the risk-free interest rate as well as the construction period and it is negatively associated with the execution price.The impact of risks and uncertainties within the R&D cycle,to some extent,could be reduced by the improved model,which enable investors to make decisions flexibly according to the actual progress of R&D projects and increase the accuracy of expected return forecast.
作者
孙佳旭
全良
田国双
SUN Jiaxu;QUAN Liang;TIAN Guoshuang(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150000,China)
出处
《重庆理工大学学报（自然科学）》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第12期89-95,142,共8页
Journal of Chongqing University of Technology：Natural Science
基金
黑龙江省自然基金项目“黑龙江省产业集群化与对策研究”(G2015006)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目“黑龙江省林业产业集群升级的机理及路径研究”(13B005)
关键词
智能制造
企业R&D项目
模型改进
价值评估
intelligent manufacturing
R&D projects in enterprises
model improvement
value assessment
