GM(1,1)灰色模型在上海市医院诊疗人次预测中的应用

Application of GM(1,1) Grey Model in Prediction of Hospital Diagnoses and Treatments in Shanghai

目的预测上海市医院诊疗人次的动态变化趋势,为医院的长远发展规划提供可供参考的理论依据。方法通过GM(1,1)灰色模型对上海市医院诊疗人次进行模拟,预测其动态变化趋势。结果根据上海市2007—2017年的医院诊疗人次数据建立的灰色预测模型为(k+1)=127884.21e^0.0695 k-121036.05。模型中C=12.9236,P=1,该模型精度为优,预测效果好。结论GM(1,1)灰色模型可以较为理想地预测和模拟上海市医院诊疗人次在时间序列上的动态变化趋势,可以将其应用于医院诊疗人次预测。

Objective:To predict dynamic changing trend of the number of hospital’s diagnoses and treatments in Shanghai and provide a theoretical basis for the long-term development planning of hospitals.Method:The GM(1,1)grey model was used to simulate the number of patients in Shanghai hospitals and predict their dynamic change trend.Result:According to the data of hospital visits from 2007 to 2017 in Shanghai,the grey prediction model was established as(k+1)=127884.21e^0.0695k-121036.05.Model C=12.9236,P=1,the model had an excellent accuracy and a good prediction effect.Conclusion:GM(1,1)grey model can ideally predict and simulate the dynamic change trend of hospital visits in time series,and can be applied to the prediction of hospital diagnoses and treatments.