货币价值波动、财富分配差距扩大与系统性金融风险

Fluctuation in Currency Value, Expansion of Wealth Distribution Gap and Systemic Financial Risk

选取我国1990-2018年的数据为样本,运用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)对随机变量进行脉冲分析和方差分解分析。结果显示:货币价值波动初期导致系统性金融风险增加,对财富分配差距扩大的影响滞后。财富分配差距扩大初期对导致系统性金融风险影响较小,随后增加;货币价值波动对系统性金融风险的影响较大,并导致财富分配差距扩大。

The data of 1990-2018 in China were selected as samples,and the structural vector autoregressive model(SVAR)was used to analyze the random variables by pulse analysis and variance decomposition.As a result of the pulse analysis,the initial fluctuations in the value of the currency led to an increase in systemic financial risk,which lagged behind the widening gap in wealth distribution.The expansion of the gap in wealth distribution has little impact on systemic financial risks,and then increases.As a result of variance decomposition,the impact of currency value fluctuations on systemic financial risks is greater,followed by the widening of wealth distribution gaps.