系统重要性地方政府综合识别研究——基于个体风险与信息传染风险视角

A Comprehensive Recognition Research of Systematic Import Local Government: A Perspective of Individual Risk and Information Infection Risk

从"太大而不能倒"和"联系太紧而不能倒"两个维度,分别运用因子分析和转移熵网络分析测度地方政府的个体风险与信息传染风险,综合识别我国系统重要性地方政府。结果表明:两个维度综合确定的我国系统重要性地方政府名单更为符合系统重要性之要义;根据个体风险指数和传染风险指数的排名组合情况,可将31个地方政府归为四类;针对不同类型的系统重要性地方政府,监管部门应采取针对性的监管措施;传染风险对系统重要性的贡献更大,处于风险传染网络中心的地方政府需要实行更加严格的管控。

In order to identify the systematic importance of local government,factor analysis and transfer entropy network analysis are used to measure local government’s individual risk and information infection risk,from the two dimensions of"too big to fail"and"too close to fall".Research results:The list of systemically important local governments in China determined by two dimensions is more consistent with the essence of systemically important local governments;according to the ranking of individual risk index and infection risk index,31 local governments can be classified into four categories.For different types of systemically important local governments,the regulatory authorities should adopt targeted regulatory measures;infection risks contribute more to the importance of the system,and local governments at risk-infected network centers need stricter controls.