中国粮食市场垂直整合与非对称价格调整——基于一种新的正则化贝叶斯门限估计法

Vertical Integration and Asymmetric Price Adjustment in China’s Grain Market: Based on a New Regularized Bayesian Threshold Estimator

基于中国主要粮食品种的收购价格、批发价格和零售价格数据,采用一种新的正则化贝叶斯门限估计法估计的三区制门限向量修正模型(TVECM),从交易成本视角探讨粮食市场垂直整合程度和非对称价格调整。结果表明:粮食收购市场与批发市场整合程度高于批发市场与零售市场整合程度;大豆和玉米市场垂直整合程度低于大米和小麦市场垂直整合程度;粮食市场垂直价格调整在不同区制具有非对称性;当价格偏离均衡程度低于交易成本时,也可能存在价格调整。

Based on the price data at farm,wholesale and retail levels for rice,wheat,soybean and maize,this paper uses the three-regime TVECM to investigate the vertical integration and asymmetric price adjustment in China’s grain market in the perspective of transaction cost.For TVECM,we employ a new regularized Bayesian estimator.The results show that the farm-wholesale market integration is greater than the wholesale-retail market integration,and the vertical integration of soybean and maize markets is poorer than the vertical integration of rice and wheat markets.In addition,the vertical price adjustment of grain market is asymmetric in different regimes,and price adjustment may also occur when the magnitude of the deviation from long-run equilibrium is lower than the transaction cost.