房租与房价、收入之间的关系研究——基于天津市季度数据的实证分析

Research on the relationship between housing rent and housing price and income——An empirical analysis based on Tianjin’s quarterly data

随着我国住房租赁市场的发展,不断上升的房屋租金水平加大了城市低收入群体的生存压力。对房租及其影响因素关系的研究,有助于深化对房租变动规律的认识和保持住房租赁市场健康发展。以天津市2007年一季度至2017年四季度房租、房价和居民收入数据为样本进行实证分析,在ECM模型基础上,采用Granger因果检验验证天津市房租与房价以及房租与居民收入水平之间的关系。研究发现,天津市房租与房价存在长期均衡关系,房租与房价在短期内相互独立,长期来看,房价的变动在一定程度上会正向影响房租的走势。另外,天津市房租价格的变化量与居民收入水平存在互为因果的关系。

With the development of China’s housing rental market,the rising housing rent has increased the pressure on the survival of urban low-income groups.The study of the relationship between housing rent and its factors will help to deepen the understanding of the law of rent changes and maintain the sound development of the housing rental market.This paper makes an empirical analysis of the housing rent,housing price and residents’income data of Tianjin from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2017.Based on the ECM model,it uses Granger causality test to verify the relationship between housing rent and housing price and the relationship between housing rent and residents’income level in Tianjin.The study finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between housing rent and housing price in Tianjin.Housing rent and housing price are independent in the short term.In the long run,the changes in housing price will positively affect the trend of housing rent to some extent.In addition,there is a causal relationship between the changes in housing rent and the income level of residents in Tianjin.