昆明市城镇化特征及其动力机制分析

THE CHARACTERISTICS AND DYNAMIC MECHANISMS OF URBANIZATION OF KUNMING CITY

根据城镇化内涵,从经济、人口、社会和空间4个维度构建了城镇化综合评价指标体系,基于城镇化综合发展指数模型及多元线性回归模型,分析了昆明市2000~2017年的城镇化特征及动力机制。结果表明:(1)2000~2017年,昆明市城镇化综合发展指数增长迅速,由2000年的0.106上升到2017年的0.896;各个维度的城镇化在不断发展的同时也表现出不同的特征,2000~2004年,主要表现为经济城镇化,2004~2012年,城镇化发展以人口城镇化与经济城镇化为主,2012~2017年,主要表现为社会城镇化;(2)内源力、市场力、行政力、外向力共同促进昆明市城镇化发展,其动力大小顺序为:内源力>行政力>外向力>市场力,内源力是昆明城镇化最主要的动力因子。

According to the connotation of urbanization,the comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization was constructed from four dimensions of demographic urbanization,spatial urbanization,economic urbanization and social urbanization.Based on the urbanization comprehensive development index model and multiple linear regression model,the urbanization characteristics and dynamic mechanism of Kunming from 2000 to 2017 were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)during the period of 2000 to 2017,Kunming's urbanization comprehensive development index increased rapidly,from 0.106 in 2000 to 0.896 in 2017.Urbanization in four dimensions represented different characteristics with the continuous development From 2000 to 2004,it mainly showed economic urbanization.From 2004 to 2012,urbanization development mainly focused on population urbanization and economic urbanization.From 2012 to 2017,it mainly showed social urbanization.(2)Endogenous force,market force,administrative force and outward force jointly promoted the development of urbanization in Kunming.Endogenous force was the most important driving factor for Kunming's urbanization,followed by administrative force,outward force and market force.